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 Elliot Wave & the Price of Gold

 

 

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The bull market consists of five Major waves designated ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR and FIVE. Major TWO and Major FOUR are corrective waves with a 25%-30% magnitude of anticipated decline.

Major upward impulse waves, ONE, THREE and FIVE will each contain 5 Large waves designated in Roman Numerals, I, II, III, IV and V. Large II and Large IV are corrective waves with a 16% magnitude of decline, give or take a couple of percentage points.

Large waves I, III and V will each contain 5 Small waves designated 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Small waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves with approximately 8% magnitudes of decline.

Small waves 1, 3 and 5 will each contain five Minor waves designated i, ii, iii, iv and v. Minor waves ii and iv are corrective waves, each declining 4%, give or take 1-2%.

The Major wave's (TWO and FOUR) corrective percentage is still a guesstimate as we had not experienced a correction of the major magnitude in the bull market until now. It could conceivably be much larger than 25-30%. There is nothing holy about these percentages. They are simply relationships that were picked up in the early stages of the gold bull market. The purpose is to help differentiate between the various wave sizes....per Alf Field Elliott Wave Update 22.
 

 

 

Elliott Waves of

GOLD

 

Dates

Wave #

From

To

$ Change

% Change

           

04/06/01-05/25/01

1

$256

$291

+$35

+13.7%

05/25/01-07/06/01

2

$291

$265

-$26

-8.9%

07/06/01-05/31/02

3

$265

$327

+$62

+23.4%

05/31/02-08/01/02

4

$327

$302

-$25

-7.6%

08/01/02-02/05/03

5

$302

$382

+$80

+26.5%

04/06/01-02/05/03

WAVE I

$256

$382

+$126

+49.2%

           

02/05/03-02/18/03

A

$382

$344

-$38

-10.0%

02/18/03-02/25/03

B

$344

$358

+$14

+4.1%

02/25/03-04/07/03

C

$358

$320

-$38

-10.6%

02/05/03-04/07/03

WAVE II

$382

$320

-$62

-16.2%

           

04/07/03-05/27/03

1

$320

$371

+$51

+15.9%

05/27/03-07/17/03

2

$371

$343

-$28

-7.5%

07/17/03-01/13/04

3

$343

$426

+$83

+24.2%

01/13/04-05/10/04

4

$426

$375

-$51

-13.9%

05/10/04-05/12/06

5

$375

$725

+$350

+93%

04/07/03-05/12/06

WAVE III

$320

$725

+$405

+127%

           

05/12/06-10/06/06

WAVE IV

$725

$560

-$165

-22.7%

           

10/06/06-04/20/07

1

$560

$691

+$131

+23%

04/20/07-06/27/07

2

$691

$642

-$49

-7.1%

06/27/07-11/08/07

3

$642

$841

+199

+31%

11/08/07-11/30/07

4

$841

$783

-$58

-6.9%

11/30/07-03/17/08

5

$783

$1011

+$228

+29%

10/06/06-03/17/08

WAVE V

$560

$1011

+$451

+81%

4/06/01-03/17/08

WAVE ONE

$256

$1011

+$755

+295%

           

03/17/08-11/12/08

A

$1011

$692

   

11/12/08-02/20/09

B

$692

$989

   

02/20/09-??/??/09

C

$989

$???

   

3/17/08-??/??/08

WAVE TWO

$1011

$???

-$???

-???%

           

 

1

 

     
 

2

     

-8%

 

3

       
 

4

     

-8%

 

5

       
 

WAVE I

       
           
 

WAVE II

     

-16%

           
 

1

 

 

   
 

2

 

 

 

-8%

 

3

 

 

   
 

4

 

 

 

-8%

 

5

 

 

   
 

WAVE III

 

 

   
           
 

WAVE IV

 

 

 

-16%

           
 

1

 

     
 

2

     

-8%

 

3

       
 

4

     

-8%

 

5

 

 

   
 

WAVE V

       
 

WAVE THREE

 

 

   
           
 

WAVE FOUR

 

   

-32%

           
 

1

       
 

2

     

-8%

 

3

       
 

4

     

-8%

 

5

       
 

WAVE I

       
           
 

WAVE II

     

-16%

           
 

1

       
 

2

     

-8%

 

3

       
 

4

     

-8%

 

5

       
 

WAVE III

       
           
 

WAVE IV

     

-16%

           
 

1

     

 

 

2

     

-8%

 

3

       
 

4

     

-8%

 

5

       
 

WAVE V

       
 

WAVE FIVE

       

 

 

All the gold prices are from The London Bullion Market Association, London Gold Fixings, priced in US Dollars and rounded off to the nearest dollar]

 

 

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