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Cycles of Gold
Elliot Wave & the Price of Gold
The bull market consists of five Major
waves designated ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR and FIVE. Major TWO and Major FOUR are
corrective waves with a 25%-30% magnitude of anticipated decline.
Major upward impulse waves, ONE, THREE and FIVE will each contain 5 Large waves
designated in Roman Numerals, I, II, III, IV and V. Large II and Large IV are
corrective waves with a 16% magnitude of decline, give or take a couple of
percentage points.
Large waves I, III and V will each contain 5 Small waves designated 1, 2, 3, 4,
and 5. Small waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves with approximately 8% magnitudes
of decline.
Small waves 1, 3 and 5 will each contain five Minor waves designated i, ii, iii,
iv and v. Minor waves ii and iv are corrective waves, each declining 4%, give or
take 1-2%.
The Major wave's (TWO and FOUR) corrective percentage is still a guesstimate as
we had not experienced a correction of the major magnitude in the bull market
until now. It could conceivably be much larger than 25-30%. There is nothing
holy about these percentages. They are simply relationships that were picked up
in the early stages of the gold bull market. The purpose is to help
differentiate between the various wave sizes....per Alf Field
Elliott Wave
Update 22.
Elliott Waves of
GOLD
|
Dates |
Wave # |
From |
To |
$ Change |
% Change |
|
04/06/01-05/25/01 |
1 |
$256 |
$291 |
+$35 |
+13.7% |
|
05/25/01-07/06/01 |
2 |
$291 |
$265 |
-$26 |
-8.9% |
|
07/06/01-05/31/02 |
3 |
$265 |
$327 |
+$62 |
+23.4% |
|
05/31/02-08/01/02 |
4 |
$327 |
$302 |
-$25 |
-7.6% |
|
08/01/02-02/05/03 |
5 |
$302 |
$382 |
+$80 |
+26.5% |
|
04/06/01-02/05/03 |
WAVE I |
$256 |
$382 |
+$126 |
+49.2% |
|
02/05/03-02/18/03 |
A |
$382 |
$344 |
-$38 |
-10.0% |
|
02/18/03-02/25/03 |
B |
$344 |
$358 |
+$14 |
+4.1% |
|
02/25/03-04/07/03 |
C |
$358 |
$320 |
-$38 |
-10.6% |
|
02/05/03-04/07/03 |
WAVE II |
$382 |
$320 |
-$62 |
-16.2% |
|
04/07/03-05/27/03 |
1 |
$320 |
$371 |
+$51 |
+15.9% |
|
05/27/03-07/17/03 |
2 |
$371 |
$343 |
-$28 |
-7.5% |
|
07/17/03-01/13/04 |
3 |
$343 |
$426 |
+$83 |
+24.2% |
|
01/13/04-05/10/04 |
4 |
$426 |
$375 |
-$51 |
-13.9% |
|
05/10/04-05/12/06 |
5 |
$375 |
$725 |
+$350 |
+93% |
|
04/07/03-05/12/06 |
WAVE III |
$320 |
$725 |
+$405 |
+127% |
|
05/12/06-10/06/06 |
WAVE IV |
$725 |
$560 |
-$165 |
-22.7% |
|
10/06/06-04/20/07 |
1 |
$560 |
$691 |
+$131 |
+23% |
|
04/20/07-06/27/07 |
2 |
$691 |
$642 |
-$49 |
-7.1% |
|
06/27/07-11/08/07 |
3 |
$642 |
$841 |
+199 |
+31% |
|
11/08/07-11/30/07 |
4 |
$841 |
$783 |
-$58 |
-6.9% |
|
11/30/07-03/17/08 |
5 |
$783 |
$1011 |
+$228 |
+29% |
|
10/06/06-03/17/08 |
WAVE V |
$560 |
$1011 |
+$451 |
+81% |
|
4/06/01-03/17/08 |
WAVE ONE |
$256 |
$1011 |
+$755 |
+295% |
|
03/17/08-11/12/08 |
A |
$1011 |
$692 |
||
|
11/12/08-02/20/09 |
B |
$692 |
$989 |
||
|
02/20/09-??/??/09 |
C |
$989 |
$??? |
||
|
3/17/08-??/??/08 |
WAVE TWO |
$1011 |
$??? |
-$??? |
-???% |
|
|
1 |
|
|||
|
2 |
-8% |
||||
|
3 |
|||||
|
4 |
-8% |
||||
|
5 |
|||||
|
WAVE I |
|||||
|
WAVE II |
-16% |
||||
|
1 |
|
||||
|
2 |
|
|
-8% |
||
|
3 |
|
|
|||
|
4 |
|
|
-8% |
||
|
5 |
|
|
|||
|
WAVE III |
|
||||
|
WAVE IV |
|
|
-16% |
||
|
1 |
|
||||
|
2 |
-8% |
||||
|
3 |
|||||
|
4 |
-8% |
||||
|
5 |
|
||||
|
WAVE V |
|||||
|
WAVE THREE |
|
||||
|
WAVE FOUR |
|
-32% |
|||
|
1 |
|||||
|
2 |
-8% |
||||
|
3 |
|||||
|
4 |
-8% |
||||
|
5 |
|||||
|
WAVE I |
|||||
|
WAVE II |
-16% |
||||
|
1 |
|||||
|
2 |
-8% |
||||
|
3 |
|||||
|
4 |
-8% |
||||
|
5 |
|||||
|
WAVE III |
|||||
|
WAVE IV |
-16% |
||||
|
1 |
|
||||
|
2 |
-8% |
||||
|
3 |
|||||
|
4 |
-8% |
||||
|
5 |
|||||
|
WAVE V |
|||||
|
WAVE FIVE |
All the gold prices are from The London Bullion Market Association, London Gold Fixings, priced in US Dollars and rounded off to the nearest dollar]